Whenever I start something new – whether it’s a business, a project, or even something like a YouTube channel – I always come back to this mental model. It’s simple, but it has served me well, and it’s something I’ve seen successful founders use time and again.

Here’s how it works:

Imagine you’re standing in a field with 100 dirt mounds. Underneath two of them is $1 million each, but you don’t know which ones. Each mound takes two hours to dig up, and digging isn’t easy – it’s hard, physical work.

When faced with this challenge, people tend to respond in one of three ways:

1. The Shortcut Takers This group doesn’t want to get dirty. They try to avoid the work – poking at the dirt, kicking the mounds, or brainstorming clever tricks. But nothing they do actually moves the dirt. Eventually, they convince themselves it’s impossible and give up.
2. The Doubters This group starts strong. They grab a shovel and dig into a few mounds. But after five or six mounds with no results, doubt creeps in. They start to think, “What if there’s no money at all?” The work feels harder, the reward seems further away, and they eventually stop digging.
3. The Diggers This is the group that succeeds. They grab a shovel, start digging, and don’t stop. They know the only way to find the reward is to keep going. Even if they don’t find the money right away, they think, “At worst, I’ll get stronger, I’ll get better at digging, and I’ll learn along the way.”

Why Business Can Feel Like Playing Whac-a-Mole

For me, this mental model boils down to two things:

• Having the right or no expectations:  Seeing meaningful results takes time and effort.
• Doing the work consistently:  The only way to get results is to keep going, and refining as you learn new things.

This applies to anything new you start. Whether it’s launching a business, creating content, or pitching an idea, the beginning is always the toughest.

Applying This to Your Business

When starting something new, here’s what I typically expect:

Stage 1: The Grind

You’ll reach out to 100 people, and if you’re lucky, 2-3 will say yes. Most will say no. Not because your idea isn’t good, but because they don’t know or trust you yet.

What to Expect:

• Tons of outreach with very few responses.
• Doubts about whether it’s worth it.

Key to Success:  Stick with it. This stage is hard, but it’s where most people give up. If you push through, the next stage will get easier.

Stage 2: Small Wins

For the next 100 people, 10-15 might say yes. These small wins start to build momentum and give you confidence.

What to Expect:

• Slightly more traction as trust grows.
• Early customers referring others.

Key to Success:  Keep refining your approach. Use the feedback to improve and keep showing up.

Stage 3: Traction

By now, you’ve built credibility. Word-of-mouth starts working, and for every 100 people, 30-40 say yes.

What to Expect:

• Easier outreach with warm leads.
• Your reputation starts working for you.

Key to Success:  Focus on nurturing relationships and leveraging success stories to keep building momentum.

Stage 4: The Tipping Point

People start coming to you. Out of 100 inquiries, 50-70 might convert. You’ve built trust, and now it’s paying off.

What to Expect:

• Inbound leads from people who already trust you.
• High conversion rates with less effort.

Key to Success:  Maintain momentum. Deliver consistent value and keep refining your systems to stay ahead.

Think of the mounds as anything: outreach emails, sales calls, YouTube videos, or free trials converting to paid plans. The same mental model applies to all of it.

You can’t control which mound contains the money, but you can control whether you keep digging. The key is to have realistic expectations, embrace the grind, and trust that your efforts will eventually pay off.

So, the next time you start something new, don’t stop after a few “no’s.” You might be one action away from uncovering your breakthrough.